Joel E. Allen

Give DropBox a break

2011-05-17T15:02:00.004-04:00

May 17, 2011

Like DropBox, my company is also in the cloud business. Unlike DropBox, AllenPort focuses more on small and mid-size businesses that are more savvy about security. I have just seen the latest noise about DropBox and its security issues and pronouncements.

The IT industry has been “consumerized”. This trend has been driven by the ubiquitous desire of people to use Facebook, iPhones and every other web based consumer focused application and device imaginable, and with it, security and privacy have been all but forgotten. Sure, security gets lip service, and people wring their hands and pretend to care. But for the vast majority...its bull shit. We now live in an age where people routinely post their whereabouts on Facebook, and then publicly advertise they are going on a 2 week vacation out of town.

And for file management, sure we exclaim about the security we must have. But guess what? If you post a photo online, or send someone a link to a file or image, it must be un-encrypted in order to be viewed. There are technologies that allow secure sharing, but they cost money.

Ultimately, no matter how much our customers (or grad students filing SEC complaints) demand security, they are the first to subscribe to the latest new free service that prioritizes sharing, functionality and ease of use over privacy and security.

So let’s give our colleagues at DropBox a break. You get what you pay for.

© Joel E. Allen 2011. All Rights Reserved

Dawn of Today

2010-10-29T14:00:00.003-04:00

You have probably now seen Ray Ozzie's "Dawn of a New Day" departure memo.

http://ozzie.net/docs/dawn-of-a-new-day/

If I were a Microsoft employee, I would be thinking “Ray that is a very interesting vision of the future. But what do we do?”

Ray's article focuses on Continuous Services (purely web-based ala Google) and Connected Devices /Services (Cell Phones, Tablets, Android, iPhone, Facebook, Twitter). And although it is true that Microsoft is not the leader in these areas, he implies that Microsoft will perish if it does not get there soon.

He is saying that Microsoft needs to bridge the gap from a PC-centric world to a Software + Services World - but how?

Here’s how to do it without upsetting the accountants:

1. Focus on connecting existing Microsoft products with the cloud before developing new applications. Microsoft’ client-centric products reside on 90% of the world’s desktops...start there.
2. Offer a recurring revenue model for any software.
3. Build a Microsoft App store.
a. This must differentiate itself from all other app stores. Instead of copying the industry model, the Microsoft App store can install any Microsoft or 3rd party apps to a mobilized platform that resides at the client, communicates with the Cloud, and runs disconnected.
4. Tightly integrate user files with the applications, accessed via a single sign on.
An AllenPort partnership with Microsoft can address these issues immediately. Here is what our existing service can provide.

1. The ability to deliver Microsoft Applications in a secure environment to the desktop. The user experience for Microsoft applications must change from a single PC installation to that which follows the user to any PC or device.
2. A secure licensing model for Microsoft Applications so they are on a per user / per month basis. This can be done with SPLA.
3. A secure “My Documents” type environment that follows the user to any client.
4. A model that supports the existing Microsoft channel partners and resellers.
5. A “Microsoft App Store” with co-branding for the hosting or reseller partner.
6. A single sign-on capability for the entire Cloud-Client environment.
Continuing to build this platform can not only bridge the gap which Ray identifies, but can be a game changer for Microsoft, allowing it to leap-frog over the “web based” providers. AllenPort provides this capability for Microsoft now.

A few notable quotes from Ray:

“To deliver what seems to be required – e.g. an amazing level of coherence across apps, services and devices – will require innovation in user experience, interaction model, authentication model, user data & privacy model, policy & management model, programming & application model, and so on. These platform innovations will happen in small, progressive steps, providing significant opportunity to lead. In adapting our strategies, tactics, plans & processes to deliver what’s required by this new world, the opportunity is simply huge”.

“Complexity kills. Complexity sucks the life out of users, developers and IT. Complexity makes products difficult to plan, build, test and use. Complexity introduces security challenges. Complexity causes administrator frustration”.

“Our personal and corporate data now sits within these [Cloud] services – and as a result we’re more and more concerned with issues of trust & privacy. We most commonly engage and interact with these internet-based sites & services through the browser. But increasingly, we also interact with these continuous services through apps that are loaded onto a broad variety of service-connected devices – on our desks, or in our pockets & pocketbooks”.

Ray’s next comment articulates part of the problem but still does not offer a clear way forward for Microsoft. In fact, it points out the tremendous dilemma management must have given that Microsoft's revenue and profits primarily come from server software, MS Office and Windows.…

"For the most part, we’ve grown to perceive of ‘computing’ as being equated with specific familiar ‘artifacts’ such as the ‘computer’, the ‘program’ that’s installed on a computer, and the ‘files’ that are stored on that computer’s ‘desktop’. For the majority of users, the PC is largely indistinguishable even from the ‘browser’ or ‘internet’. As such, it’s difficult for many of us to even imagine that this could ever change."

The PCs problem is not that our personal data (files and software) is local and now needs to live in the “Cloud”. Instead, the problem is that the data is tied to that single machine or device, and does not easily move from PC to PC or device to device. (This lack of mobility is further exacerbated by the Windows Operating System and its ability to enhance or restrict features of local apps). The Browser seemed a great solution at first, but until data is actually moved instead of simply viewed remotely, nothing much has changed. It is really just a client server model reborn with the browser at the periphery.

Microsoft already controls the client in most cases, and my generation and the next are fans and advocates of Microsoft’s local applications including MS Office and others. However, if Microsoft confuses the Cloud with browser based services, they will be lost. They must continue to develop the blurring of the Client with the Cloud, and assist partners with that transition. Competing with Google on their turf is a losing proposition and not the stuff of leaders.

Microsoft’s opportunity is truly huge and partnering with AllenPort will allow us to address these issues directly. We are looking forward to working with Microsoft and together taking a lead / dominant position in the client-cloud marketplace. Connecting the client and the cloud has finally arrived. With its ease of use and ability to deliver a whole range of apps locally, as well as leveraging the power of the client with cloud mobility, the AllenPort platform with Microsoft is a compelling proposition. Let’s make this happen together.

© Joel E. Allen 2010. All Rights Reserved

The Disposable PC

2009-08-11T17:06:00.000-04:00

I come from a long line of engineers and academic types. My Grandfather would complain that no one knew how to fix things anymore. My father used to say the same thing, although ironically, I remember getting an ear-full when I took apart his radio and then could not get it back together.

So it was interesting to hear my father relate a story about making a return to Best Buy. He had recently purchased a food processor of some kind, one of those new, do everything juicers that slices and dices. Anyway, he brought his recent purchase to the customer service counter, after carefully repacking it in its original box with all the proper packaging, manuals, and extra parts included. Once he explained his situation to the helpful Best Buy associate, that person dropped the returned item, without even opening the box, into a large bin behind the counter. To my father’s surprise, that large bin of neatly packaged return items was in fact the trash bin, soon to be delivered directly to the nearest land fill or recycling plant.

The reason these items are not repaired anymore is the prohibitive cost for logistics and labor. It is much cheaper for the retailer and the manufacturer to dispose of the old device and simply give a new one to the customer. When you add together all the labor and logistics associated with documenting the source of the problem, shipping to the appropriate service center (probably in another country with lower cost labor), having a tech fix the problem, then repackaging and sending it (overseas again) back to the customer, you can quickly see the logic in this decision. Those logistical and labor costs, together with the fact that the device in question retails for a few hundred dollars, support the decision to dispose of the broken item. Even the engineer or rabid environmentalist would agree it is a pragmatic choice.

I remembered this again recently when I was struggling with a laptop PC that was giving me trouble. After spending 3 hours trouble-shooting, updating virus definitions, and running anti-malware tools, my PC still needed several hours of attention before it was good to go. But just like the toaster or the blender, our PCs are getting cheaper and cheaper. Just the other day I saw a powerful PC with all the bells and whistles for sale for under $500. There is a good possibility that an even more powerful PC will cost half the cost in 5 years. But tech support costs are not declining, and the need for them seems to be increasing. There is more software, more problems, the operating systems get more complicated, and the support of peripheral devices seems no simpler today than it did 10 years ago. And the forward thinking IT professionals I meet with are focused on what these new software / services can do for their clients, instead of how to continually fix and support their hardware.

So how do we justify hours of support and setup costs that could easily total $1000 on a device that costs half that? The answer is we can't. Our personal computing environment includes our data files, software, hardware settings, and configuration settings. All the rest is in the noise and only a head-ache.

In my business, we tell MSPs (Managed Service Providers) and VARs (Value Added Resellers) they are not providing value to their new Microsoft Exchange customer if they set them up with servers in-house. Instead, the value is added by having the MSP convince the customer to use a hosted Exchange solution. The same logic must be applied to all this ridiculous tech support going on inside my company and yours. If a tech person is working on a PC or laptop more than 15 minutes in order to get basic functionality and service restored, they are wasting time and money. How much f'ing time is spent with computers that have virus problems or malware? My friends in the security industry tell me it will only get worse.

Just like the toaster or blender, the PC will soon be disposable. And isn’t it time? How much effort and costs go into bringing a PC back to a usable state? The reason we don’t reformat our hard drives when there is a problem is that it creates a day’s worth of work…unacceptable in today’s world. If everything we cared about on that PC was mobilized, a reset or “last steady state” option would be much more attractive. The IT world will not be changed by increased security; it will be changed by mobility… the power of choice.

The power of choice and the power of mobility is freedom. If a local environment is no longer working, and the local battle may not be winnable, we all need the freedom and mobility to move to another environment.

Hey, where have I heard that before? Was it Thomas Jefferson?

© Joel E. Allen 2009. All Rights Reserved

Between the Client & the Cloud

2009-02-27T17:14:00.003-05:00

The anticipated success of the cloud ignores one basic fact of computing: Power migrates to the periphery. As our computers and networked devices become more powerful, what will we do with that surplus capacity? Do we really expect software to disappear, leaving Web-based services connected to increasingly powerful browser terminals?

The future of computing connects the client and the cloud. There will surely be continued growth in Web services. But there will also be software and local data that reside at the periphery, not encumbered by a browser or the need for a constant internet connection.

© Joel E. Allen 2009. All Rights Reserved

I Backup Religiously. Now I'm really lost!

2006-02-21T14:27:00.000-05:00

OK. I have got it figured out. I am one of the chosen 25% who backup on a regular basis. And I am among the 1/2 of users who do it properly. That's right folks. I am part of that 12.5% of the technical elite. People that have data, and protect it!

So let me tell you how this works. I create a new file...say a Word file called mom1.doc. I then backup that file every night to a remote web-based storage company called iBackup.com. Works like a champ. And the world is good. I stand in the hallway at my office with legs apart, hands on my hips, head held high because I am Master of My Data! Some folks chuckle when they walk by, but I am strong and persevere.

You know what happens after about 7 days? I go on a trip and take my laptop. Now I am doing my important work and I realize I need mom1.doc. No problem because it is stored at iBackup and I can access that data from any PC. So I login, download the file, and make some changes. The world is good.

So now, I travel back to my office after a week on the beach with sand and sun and a little to much Rum. I am still Master of My Data and it is good. Make file, backup everyday. Be happy.

Now it's Thursday and I need that mom1.doc file. No problem, I can get it...because...a...see I backup so I know it's safe...not sure which version...I made a change on my laptop...but there is a copy on my office PC...Did I replace the iBackup copy with the laptop changes...CRAP!!! CRAP!!! CRAP!!!

I no longer stand in the middle of the hallway like superman. I hide at the water cooler with head hung low, shoulders wrapped forward like a turtle shell. I am no longer Master of My Data. My confidence is gone. The world is not good.

I don't backup any more. Too much trouble. You know what I care about even more than data security? Just finding my files.

They are all on the desktop of my home PC. Hope I don't get a virus.

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

© 2006 All rights reserved

Google to turn Water into Wine?

2005-10-27T17:43:00.000-04:00

Could it be true? In searching through disparate domain name registrations, trademark applications and other state and local filing records, our research team has come across some interesting clues to what may be Google’s biggest effort to date.

This effort may be so massive as to leave their other services, including search, web based email, e-commerce, on-line photos, and everything else in the dust! What are the clues we have uncovered?

Here are a few. Google recently purchase the domain name http://www.water.com/ from a large water bottling distributor. They also just inked a lucrative deal with the wine magazine http://www.wine.com/ for sole and exclusive rights to their name and domain name. Next, an unidentified source in Vatican City has confirmed that an international contingent of intellectual property attorneys have been in intense negotiations with the Executive Bishop of the Catholic See. Sources have placed Pope Benedictus XVI personally at those meetings.

Details of those secret meetings are sketchy. However, it can now be confirmed that Google has petitioned the church for Special Dispensation Authority…essentially giving the California based company and it’s Directors divine powers! You heard it here first.

Divine Powers.
Water.com
Wine.com

What can this mean but a revolutionary food and beverage service…and with no cost of goods sold from the same company that brought us Search! We expect to see Google stock reach $6,500.00 per share by the end of trading tomorrow.

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

© 2005 Joel E. Allen. All rights reserved

The LAN is a Buggy Whip

2005-05-24T11:02:00.000-04:00

Most of us have a LAN (local area network) at the office. But these LAN’s have also become increasingly common in our homes, supporting multiple computers and wireless networking. The LAN offers us fast file transfers, network resources sharing (printing, internet access & file storage) and some security over our local data.

But the LAN has a big problem…it’s that “Local” word. Who wants things local? We aren't local. We travel from city to city, from our houses to our cars, from our offices to God knows where. We need our personal or corporate digital assets everywhere, on any device. Can you think of a digital asset (personal or corporate) that you would not ever want to access outside of the LAN wall? Even my twelve year old can articulate the fleeting nature of that “local” concept. But there must be a good reason to keep these networks local, closed to the outside world...right? Security? File Transfer Speed? Internet Access? Printing?

Well, let's remove security from that benefits list.

A survey conducted by Security Wire Digest found that 84 percent of home computer users are concerned about security, but more than three-fourths don't take basic precautions, such as updating antivirus software.” 1
A national Harris Interactive survey of 597 computer users conducted for Imation, Corp., reveals: Nearly three out of five personal computer users have lost an electronic file they thought they had sufficiently stored.
One in four users frequently back up digital files, even when 85 percent of computer users say they are very concerned about losing important digital data.
Thirty-seven percent of the survey's respondents admitted to backing up their files less than once per month.
91% of users have intrusion software (frequently referred to as "spyware" or "sneakware") on their home computers, much of it placed surreptitiously by music or file sharing programs. Despite heavy use of those programs, 94% of users do not know that spyware is often bundled with file sharing programs.
Although 76% have some kind of anti-virus software computer, only half of that group has updated their software in the past month. With 250 new viruses released each month, 62% of all broadband users are thus significantly vulnerable.”
41% of users lack any kind of firewall whatsoever, leaving their computer wide open to attack from the Internet.
Only 33% have a properly configured and secure firewall, meaning two out of every three broadband homes are not secure” 2

And one other thing. All those mom and pop businesses we hear about that are the underlying engine of our economy…many of them are run by “consumers” and their PC’s are just as screwed up at the office as they are at home. This data shows that consumers and micro businesses should let someone else handle their network and data security, and fast!

What about printing? What happens now that all these wireless laptops are moving around the world? Do we really need to download new printer drivers and configure our laptops every time we want to print to a new location? I hereby command the printing Gods at HP and Xerox to offer a simple to use WAN printer, with some kind of universal print-driver. A simple Universal Print Format to any external I.P. address. You know its coming. And if they're worried about having unsolicited junk printing on our WAN printers, add a password.

So that leaves us with network speed and ubiquitous access. Many believe that these 2 remaining items will be the fuel for the next economic revolution. In fact, they're on the way.
The only thing keeping the LAN alive is the WAN's marginal data transfer speeds. Once WAN data transfer rates increase to 50 megabits per second, that will be the end of the LAN. Transfer speeds in Japan and South Korea are already approaching 10 megabits per second, and this for as low as $20.00 per month.

WI-MAX, also known as 802.16 will offer bandwidths up to 54 megabits / sec with a 50 Km range. This technology is already appearing in cities like New York & Baltimore.
What does this futuristic world look like without a LAN? For consumers, one of the necessary changes will be the liberation of the desktop. The concept of chaining a computer user’s data, software and application settings to a single computer or local network is shortsighted. Our personal computing environment is an asset that must be treated as any other valuable assets...it must be managed, protected and easily available anywhere. Simple, without integration or configuration. Unchained.

The future is about mobility and ubiquitous computing, and there is nothing “Local” about that.

1 Security Wire Digest: October 25, 2002

2 The National Cyber Security Alliance: June 4, 2003

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

Service-Based Computing

2004-12-02T16:41:00.000-05:00

Interesting post from David Hornick regarding Service-Based Computing.

My response follows:

To: David Hornik, August Capital
Re: Walled Gardens At DemoMobile

My company is at the forefront of this Service-Based Computing, and was mentioned by Chris Shipley in her Op-ed to Network World Fusion.

I would like to clarify the difference between Service-Based computing and Web-Based services like Salesforce.com or Quickbooks Online. Web-based services move data between a central database and a browser. Yes, the power is at the core. Yes the data is safe, and accessible from any computer or network device. But web-based services have two limitations; they require a constant network connection and must be accessed through a browser. This platform will surely increase in popularity, but will not eliminate the need for software.

Service-based computing is different. It is a service that mobilizes the entire computing environment (data, software and application settings) for delivery over a network to any device. This computing environment is local to the client, but mirrored to a remote service center where it can be managed, archived and delivered as needed. It is not constrained by the limitations of the browser, nor limited by a need to be constantly connected to the network.

I expect a world where both models are prevalent; service-based computing and web-based services. What is important is that our personal computing environments (data & software) will soon be mobilized...no longer chained to a single computer or network device. Then we can concentrate on the next great opportunity in computing…the management and delivery of our digital assets!

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

© 2005 Joel E. Allen. All rights reserved

Dynamic Models Demand Detachment

2004-12-01T11:57:00.000-05:00

To: Tom Yager, Technical Director, InfoWorld Test Center
From: Joel Allen, Founder, AllenPort Co.

Re: Your article today http://www.infoworld.com/article/04/11/19/47OPcurve_1.html

I enjoyed your article.

Your comment "Nobody can be allowed to own anything" is interesting, and with regard to computer assets, I agree to an extent. The concept of being liberated from a single computer is old and new, and it must occur in order to accommodate our needs for mobility and security. However, I submit that there is still something that we will "own", and enjoy increased access and control over in the future; that is our digital assets (data, software and application settings).

If our digital assets are remotely mirrored, protected and delivered to any computer or network device, we have not lost ownership of our hardware. We have gained control over the most important assets on the computer...our personal computing environment.

I understand the benefits of web-based services. Companies like Salesforce.com have proven that is a viable business model for certain applications. However, the success of that web-based model ignores one basic fact of computing; power migrates to the periphery. As our computers and network devices become more powerful, what will we do with that surplus power? Do we really expect software to disappear, leaving web based services connected to increasingly powerful browser terminals?

There will surely be growth in the web services field. The power generated by a central service is undeniably valuable to many individuals and companies. But there will also be software. Software that resides at the periphery. Not encumbered by the browser or the need for a constant network connection.

Joel E. Allen

Where’s the Power?

2004-11-09T13:05:00.000-05:00

In the beginning, there were software companies and they were good…well they were OK. They developed their applications and sold them to a public hungry for tools that justified the purchase of a personal computer that had very little practical use unless you were a coder. How many PC’s were sold because of VisiCalc?

But the world has changed. There are many applications to perform the same basic functions. How many contact managers are there? Spreadsheets? E-mail programs? Do a Google search on “free chess game” or “free 3-d modeling software” and you will be amazed by the number of programs available for download.

The software world must keep up. The days of selling shrink-wrapped software are ending. Software companies are under increasing pressure to differentiate themselves from competitors, and it's not just pricing pressure caused by the emergence of the open-source movement. This pressure to differentiate demands mobility between many disparate machines and devices. It also demands a customer service model that accrues experience, eliminating the "start over" every time we have a problem or question. The software companies must find a way to maintain customer loyalty other than through a familiar graphic interface. What happens when voice recognition becomes commonplace? Imagine the ramifications to your address book or music player when you never need to see the GUI.

The learning curve for many applications is burdensome, and in many cases not worth the extra effort. We can get the basics, but the pain associated with mastering a certain software tool is cumbersome. Even experienced users struggle with uncommon features in regularly used applications. The concept that computer users the world over will continue to figure out a never ending flow of software tools and features is not practical. There must be a direct connection between the application provider and the customer, and I don't mean a third-party help desk in Bangalore. Include software updates and future mobility requirements between different devices into the mix and we are looking at a time of accelerating change for the software industry.

So the power shifts. And just like all power, it naturally migrates to the periphery. This evolution will move the center of power from the software companies to the developers and then ultimately to the users themselves. I submit that the end user will soon have the ultimate power in the software hierarchy. And I further submit this newly empowered software user will have access to those applications anywhere, on any device, with the relevant personal data and settings following seamlessly.

Many people believe this portends a service based computing industry. But how do we reconcile these two seemingly different solutions; the web-services provider with all the power at the core verses having more processing power and storage capacity on our local devices?

The future lies in a merging of these different solutions. There must be a service-based organization connecting to and updating these more powerful peripheral devices. More importantly, the data, application settings and software must be updated and mirrored to those devises seamlessly so that if the network is down or disconnected, those peripheral devices still function; something a web-based services organization cannot offer. This is the true marriage of service-based and stand-alone computing power. It is an application service model with mirroring capabilities. Add that together with disconnected functionality and remote control capabilities and you have the ingredients to save the software industry from itself, and make computing simple for everyone.

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

© 2005 Joel E. Allen. All rights reserved

Allen's Law

2004-11-01T11:36:00.000-05:00

You've heard of Moore's law. It states that the number of transistors per square inch will double each year for the foreseeable future. You probably have also heard of Metcalfe's law. Metcalfe's law states that the usefulness, or utility, of a network equals the square of the number of users.

But there is one measurement that may be more interesting to future historians and social scientists than any other. A measurement directly relevant to our personal lives. It is a measurement on the level of growth of our personal data store.

To describe this phenomenon, I have created Allen's law. Allen's law states that the size of a person's data store will double each year for the next 10 years, and into the foreseeable future. Moore's law and Metcalfe's law describe a massive growth curve based on a doubling effect, and Allen's law is directly affected and corresponds to that phenomenon. As processor speed doubles, and the network's power increases with more users, there will be a proportional amount of digital stuff that is saved.

Some facts to consider:

Currently, less than 20% of the world's data is digitized, with most remaining in non-machine-readable format including paper, microfiche, graphs, charts, and various film. 1
The cost of cleaning up old data storage devices is 3 times greater than adding capacity. In other words, it's cheaper to purchase additional storage than to clean up our mess. Consider e-mail. As you probably know, people don't delete much e-mail. Most of the Spam goes directly into our Delete box, but 55% of our messages (4 trillion messages this year) remain. Why don't we clean up our in-boxes? I don't know...maybe the same reason we didn't clean our rooms when we were kids. We seem to all have this paranoia that we will throw something away that we may want or need later. In fact, look at the new web based e-mail offerings from Google and Yahoo! They both are offering nearly 1 gig of personal e-mail storage...that's a lot of crap to keep!
We have just begun saving our personal assets digitally. "Beyond the internet, entertainment may be the largest single driver of storage demand on a global basis as we demonstrate an endless appetite for any form of digital entertainment in the home, away from home and even at work."2

According to the Gale Group, our total worldwide data store in 2005 will be 43 Exabytes; that's 43 million trillion bytes. See table below.

Historical numbers look like this.

Assuming these growth estimates proves correct, this hints at some growth industries. Search engines seem obvious now that Google has revolutionized the industry, but it sure wasn't obvious two years ago. And assuming each man, woman and child will have a Petabyte of personal digital assets in 10 years, search is going to come in quite handy. But what about management of that personal data? Are our personal digital assets secure, and can we access them on any device? How will these assets be managed and directed? Will we include them in our estate planning? Where will they be stored? What part of those digital assets will be permanently archived, and which will have a time fuse?

So spread the word. Moore's law and Metcalfe's law describe the power of technology. But Allen's law is about our personal stuff...something that's a lot more real. Hey, maybe our grandkids will be visiting the Antique Road Show for an appraisal. What do you think those old .jpg's are going to be worth?

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

Monster Markets

2004-09-25T09:02:00.000-04:00

Will someone please point me towards the Next Monster market?

We have all been told the recipe for success in the tech age. Start with a monster market, add an unfair competitive advantage and tie it all together with a workable business model. It really doesn’t sound that tuff, does it? If you look at the monster markets of the past (near and far), we should be able to project forward and chose the next investment market.

What were those monster markets? Steam engines. Textiles. Transportation. Utilities. Processors. Bandwidth. Storage / Data. Telecommunications. These were monster markets, and they changed the world with a combination of constantly lowered prices and ever growing markets. They spawned massive new industries and (in most cases) created tremendous value for the owners of the intellectual property.

We all like to think that we are smart. But let’s be careful. What do these monster markets look like when they are in their infancy? Do they hint at the greatness to come, or are they just another ugly baby? How do we tell the difference between the two?

Let’s look at personal computing as an example. Here is a market that has the legs of a true Giant. The fallout and future markets that will be created by this monster have yet to be known. But was there a personal computing market before Microsoft? Well, there was Apple, and some other small guys. But come on, who would have guessed? Maybe some researchers at XeroxParc. Maybe Steve Jobbs.

And what about Palm? How big was that market before they launched the Palm Pilot? More mouse then monster. Jeff Hawkins took a flyer. And what about all of Silicon Valley’s forward thinking VC’s….

And while I’m at it, what was the market for 30 minute pizza delivery, or the automobile, or even the telephone? In 1876, the year he patented the telephone, Alexander Graham Bell approached Western Union, then the largest communications company in America, and offered it exclusive rights to the invention for $100,000. William Orton, Western Union's president, turned down the offer, posing one of the most shortsighted questions in business history: "What use could this company make of an electrical toy?"1

And what of the next big market? VC’s, inventors, hedge funds and economists look towards bandwidth and the internet for clues. “What markets benefit from the scalability of data transfer rates?”2 “What new markets will be created from this elastic market that would have been impossible 5 years ago?”3 There’s music and movies, and information to think about. Yes, we will probably be able to download any movie we want in high resolution in the near future. Hey, Steve Jobbs might even make it on a good looking video player. The more ethereal (no pun intended) projects like data and knowledge will benefit, but what else?

The truth is, know one knows. It seems that all we would need to do is face the facts for an answer. But as Eleanor of Aquitaine said to King Henry II… “Face the Facts? Which ones? There are so Many!”4

So we search and dig, and hope to find our Monster market. And we can be reasonably sure that whatever and wherever it is, it probably won’t come from a traditional source, it won't be were we are looking, and it won't be recognized by the industry leaders as a threat until it’s to late.

Happy hunting.

1 M. Hirsh Goldberg, The Blunder Book , p. 151
2 Andrew Kessler, Running Money
3 Andrew Kessler, Running Money
4 The Lion in Winter -- 1968 by James Goldman

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.

© 2004 Joel E. Allen. All rights reserved.

The Sun Has Set

2004-02-29T16:53:00.000-05:00

I read the news today about Sun Microsystems' desire to patent a “Method of Licensing Software.” If you are unsure of exactly what that means, think of it as a patent application on charging customers money for services rendered.

I had high hopes for Sun Microsystems. Although they may have an outdated product line in an increasingly commoditized world, it has been fun to see their fighting spirit. They still have cash in the bank (over $2 billion at the time of this writing) and had a vision of the future…even if it was controversial.

But now it’s over. This ridiculous patent application is a desperate last gasp of a company that has lost its way…lost its sight. We know we are old when we have to look backwards to see greatness. We maintain our youth when we look to the future. Old age is a state of mind, a surrender. But Sun’s is the worst kind of old age, filled with bitterness and confusion. This application attempts to solidify Sun’s future on the backs of future technology start-ups. I can only imagine what Jonathan Schwartz would say if this application had been filed by Microsoft. This kind of “I’ve got mine” mentality was formerly the domain of real estate developers and American motorcycle manufacturers. It is disconcerting in high technology.

It is also a telling comment on the state of the United States Patent System when an application like this can even be contemplated. According to the United States Patent and Trademark Office, a “utility patent may be granted to anyone who invents or discovers any new and useful process, machine, article of manufacture, or composition of matters, or any new useful improvement thereof.” Well, give me a roomful of lawyers, a few million bucks, and we can make butter.

In fact, I have a few applications that I am already working on.

A process for simple mobilization of the human body over any terrain. We will call it "Putting one foot in front of the other” or “Walking.”
An invention that will consolidate all home deliveries into a central location, preferably at the end of a driveway. We will call this a “mailbox.”
And my personal favorite…A process in which hydrogen and oxygen can come together and provide life-sustaining sustenance for any plant or animal. We will call this “rain.”

So knock yourself out. Call your lawyer, and get your piece of the intellectual property pie. Maybe a patent on sleeping and breathing can still be had. Hey, how about childbirth!

Joel Allen is president of AllenPort Co., based in Princeton, NJ.